The recent deadly violence has focused many minds.
The wider picture touches on the Pacific Islands Forum's (PIF) very fabric and highlights key challenges for its future.
The question of self-determination is part of the body's DNA.
PIF was formed in 1971 to give the leaders of newly independent countries space to discuss, decolonisation and denuclearisation when they were silenced in the coloniser-dominated South Pacific Commission.
Flags flutter in Nuku'alofa ahead of the 2024 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. (Ben McKay/AAP PHOTOS)
PIF has maintained an active interest in the progress of self-determination across the region – French Polynesia, Guam, Bougainville, and West Papua.
The French Ambassador to the region, Veronique Roger-Lacan will represent her country in Tonga.
Whilst she has maintained Paris is "engaged" with the decolonisation process, she has also stated that "New Caledonia is France".
The (largely pro-independence) Kanak community rejects this position.
After 30 years of peace under the Noumea Accords with two referendums on independence in 2018 and 2020, the timing of the third referendum sparked an unravelling of what had been largely accepted as a calm and even-handed process.
In the previous two votes, the result was 'Non' to becoming independent: 57 per cent in 2018 and 53 per cent in 2020. The closing gap made the third and final poll in 2021 keenly anticipated.
However, it was staged while the Kanak community was dealing with the impacts of COVID-19 and observing customary mourning rites.
New Caledonia President Louis Mapou and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in 2023. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)
This, they claimed, restricted their ability to campaign ahead of the poll. French authorities pushed ahead, and pro-independence parties called for non-participation.
Just 44 per cent took part, with a 'Non' vote of 96 per cent.
Notably, PIF participated in this process with an election observers' mission.
Their ministerial report records misgivings, stating "the overall outcome casts serious questions over the legitimacy of the referendum result".
It is in this volatile and increasingly polarised environment that PIF seeks to exercise a role on behalf of the wider region.
When the leaders meet in retreat on Thursday to discuss issues including New Caledonia, President Louis Mapou, the independence-leaning leader of New Caledonia government will be in the room. Ambassador Roger-Lacan will not.
An attempt by PIF to engage earlier this month fell flat.
A high-level delegation was to visit ahead of this week's Leaders Meeting, but was abruptly deferred at the request of Mr Mapou.
He claimed French authorities sought to "belittle" the PIF by trying to control the visit's scope.
STATEMENT: Pacific Islands Forum Chair, Cook Islands Prime Minister Hon. Mark Brown, on the PIF Troika-led Mission to New Caledonia— Pacific Islands Forum (@ForumSEC) READ STATEMENT: https://t.co/NuMVNcWy0V pic.twitter.com/5YDxplMiJmAugust 21, 2024
At the crux of the dilemma for PIF is the duality of New Caledonia's political status.
As acknowledged by outgoing PIF chair, Prime Minister Mark Brown of Cook Islands, it is politically challenging to support New Caledonia as a PIF member whilst it remains a territory of France.
The participation in this year's meeting of Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, could provide an opportunity.
A joint PIF-UN mission to New Caledonia may prove more palatable to the French authorities.
It may also prove harder for them to prevaricate given the added diplomatic clout the UN would bring to the effort.
It remains to be seen whether France - hamstrung by election campaigning and ongoing government formation talks in Paris - will change tack.
There are certainly many in the region that would urge it to adopt something closer to the "Pacific Way" of diplomacy.
New Caledonia's future is a knotty question indeed. One that will test the solidarity and diplomatic skills of Pacific leaders in the coming days.
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