Landholders and tourism operators along the Murray River are bracing for potential flooding in coming months following the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecast of above average rainfall.
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The BOM’s outlook for August to October has forecast above-average rainfall as a result of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole under way in Australia’s north-west, with a third consecutive La Nina weather pattern also likely.
Murray Darling Basin Authority’s River Management executive director Andrew Reynolds said the MDBA had been pre-releasing water from Hume Dam to create air-space since May, and had close to 250 gigalitres of airspace available to capture future inflows.
With already wet soils, high rivers and full dams, the forecast has local landholders on edge, with the flood level potential likely to be “higher than 2016”.
Chair of the Murray River Action Group Richard Sargood said landholders along the Murray River were very concerned.
“The reports and models are all saying the same thing, which means the flooding potential is worse than what we had in 2016,” Mr Sargood told the Free Press.
“We’ve still got two months to go, and Dartmouth Dam is already full, and Hume Dam is almost full. Once Dartmouth spills, we are in for some big flows.
“It’s a very scary situation. We are primed for disaster really.”
Mr Sargood said even average seasonal rainfall would result in significant flooding.
“We’ve got three months of this risk staring at us in the face,” he said.
“In 2016, over 100,000 megalitres a day was flowing past Corowa and there could quite easily be more this year.
“Back then, Dartmouth had no hope of spilling, whereas this year, Dartmouth will be a dead set certainty to spill and once that happens that will increase the area of catchment that will flow directly into Hume by 25 per cent.
“That means there is the potential to have to manage at 25 per cent more inflows than we had in 2016. It’s got the potential to get really, really ugly.”
Mr Sargood said while the Murray Darling Basin Authority had improved on their dam management since 2016 by increasing airspace, “they did let them get too full too quickly”.
“We do understand we live on a flood plain and we do get floods but there should be way better management in place to mitigate floods,” Mr Sargood said.
“Part of the operation procedures to Hume Dam say that they’re supposed to have the dam nearly full before demand exceed inflows and then where possible provide flood mitigation. But they treat those two conditions as being mutually exclusive.
“Every single landholder that has frontage to the Murray River or its tributaries will have plans in place to shift cattle, to put stock out on agistment, and to make sure there are no welfare issues, but it’s a really expensive exercise.
“Caravan Parks will have to pull caravans up, and tourists will stop coming because as soon as you mention flooding in the Murray River, tourists stop coming.”
On the banks of the Murray River, Corowa Caravan Park owner Karen Dunstan said she was nervous about the wet forecast for August and September with the pumping over water already underway at the park with river level currently above five metres.
“We certainly don’t want the river to get any higher,” she said.
Karen and Ed Dunstan did not own the park in 2016 when major flooding hit the region and said the increased flood risk was “very new for them”.
“We are learning a lot very quickly. You would be crazy not be nervous at this time of year with dams so full, the river also very full and knowing the rain that is still to come,” Ms Dunstan said.
“If we flooded, we would simply have to close the park. If things stay the way they are now, we can manage it. Right now, we are setting the alarms at night to turn the pumps on and off and we can pump water out faster than what’s coming in.
“At the level the river is now, we are not at any risk of losing property, but we are still concerned about what’s to come.”
Federation Council Mayor Pat Bourke told the Free Press that council was prepared for emergency situations and would be directed under the principles and procedures of its Local Emergency Management Plan.
“Council is monitoring the evolving situation closely,” Mayor Bourke said.
“Council would be guided by the State Emergency Service who are the lead agency in these types of circumstances if and when a flood emergency occurs. We continue to actively work within the Local Emergency Management framework to prepare and manage any events should they arise, with relevant state agencies and other stakeholders.”
Useful Information
Hume Dam's primary purpose is water security — it plays a crucial role in managing flows and securing water along the Murray River, including to Adelaide.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority needs to fill Hume Dam before irrigation demands start to exceed inflows, and the level starts to drop. This ensures water allocations are maximised.
MDBA operates the Hume Dam in accordance with the rules set by state governments.
When the dam fills, all floodwater will pass through the dam and head downstream, along with the water entering from tributaries such as the Kiewa River.
The Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for issuing flood warnings to the public. Check www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings for up-to-date flood warnings in your area.
For more information about how dams are managed to reduce the impact of flooding visit: mdba.gov.au